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October 31, 2024

Federal Legislative Updates
Ohio Legislative Updates
G2G Blog

Ohio Legislative Update

Last Updated: October 31st, 2024

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Overview

As the November general election approaches, G2G is closely monitoring key races at the state and federal level. Meanwhile, Ohio’s tax revenue is projected to maintain its downward trend, which means less funding will be available for the State Operating Budget than in the previous two cycles. However, Ohio Office of Budget and Management (OBM) Director Kim Murnieks said while COVID dollars will not be available in this budget, which contributed to the funding increases over the past four years, Ohio’s revenue numbers are similar to pre-COVID levels so it will be a back-to-normal budget. After the elections, the legislature will be back in lame duck session in November with some minor bills to pass. More on elections, statehouse updates, and business below.

Elections

November 5th Voting in Ohio Rules

Redistricted maps (in use 2024-2032) for Ohio House and Senate districts are here.

Voting hours are 6:30AM-7:30PM on Tuesday, November 5th and polling locations are here.

ID requirements are strict as utility bills, bank statements, paychecks, birth certificates, and social security cards are not acceptable forms of ID. Acceptable IDs are here.

Mailed absentee ballots must be postmarked by November 4th.

 

U.S. Senate Race is the Most Expensive in the Nation

The Senator Sherrod Brown and candidate Bernie Moreno race has spent a whopping $515 million total, breaking all records for a non-presidential race in U.S. history. Outside money is playing a key role with these PACs spending $90 million for Moreno and $22.5 million for Brown. Moreno and his supporters have the spending advantage with nearly $242 million in ad reservations compared to Brown's $218 million. But the most recent filing showed Brown is outraising Moreno 3:1 between July and the end of September with $31 million compared to Moren’s $10 million. In order for Brown to win Ohio, there must be ticket-splitters as the polling consistently favors former President Trump over Vice President Harris 51.8% to 43.7%.

 

Issue 1 and District Maps

Another factor driving turn-out at the polls for the Senate and Presidential elections is Issue 1, which establishes the Ohio Citizens Redistricting Commission, a 15-member non-politician commission responsible for adopting state legislative and congressional redistricting plans. All current and former public officials, large political donors, and lobbyists would be banned from sitting on the Ohio Citizens Redistricting Commission. Currently, legislative maps are drawn by the Ohio Redistricting Commission, a group consisting of the governor, auditor, secretary of state, and appointees from the Senate president, House speaker, Senate minority leader, and House minority leader. Issue 1 would end partisan gerrymandering and the maps would be drawn with no consideration of where the incumbents in those district live, unlike the current rules that prohibit drawing an incumbent out of their district. Issue 1 is backed by the Citizens Not Politicians campaign and is led by Republican former Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor. PAC Ohio Works, Governor DeWine and some trade and business groups oppose it.

 

House of Representative Top Races

Republicans currently hold a majority of House seats, but the winners of Ohio’s congressional elections could determine control of the chamber. The three closest races are:

  • Emilia Sykes (D-OH-13) is running against former State Rep. Kevin Coughlin. This district has a slight D advantage by a margin of 51% to 47% and Sykes has outraised Coughlin, but it is considered a Toss Up and one of the most competitive races in the country.
  • Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-09) is running against State Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Maumee). This district leans Democrat but Merrin has gained a lot of support. Kaptur has outraised Merrin and this race has recently shifted from a Toss Up to the Likely D category.
  • Greg Landsman (D-OH-01) is running against Orlando Sonza, a former Hamilton County assistant prosecutor. Landsman has outraised Sonza in this district that leans D by 50%-48%.

Other races where expect the incumbents to win, but still watching closely include:

  • Max Miller (R-OH-07) is running against Democrat Matt Diemer and former Democratic Cong. Dennis Kucinich, who is running as an Independent. This district is likely Republican, with a 54% majority.
  • Mike Turner (R-OH-10) is running against Democrat Amy Cox. This district is likely Republican, with a 52% majority.
  • Mike Carey (R-OH-15) is running against State Rep. Adam Miller (D-Columbus). This district is likely Republican, with a 53% majority.

 

Statehouse Races to Watch

Several state legislators face challenging races, particularly in Columbus and Cleveland. A few of the close incumbent races of note:

  • House District 11 (Northwest Franklin County): Stephanie Kunze (R-Hilliard) is running against Crystal Lett. Sen. Kunze narrowly defeated Lett in the 2020 election for the Senate District 16 seat. This is too close to call.
  • Senate District 16 (Northwest and Northeast Franklin County): Beth Liston (D-Dublin) is running against Besa Sharrah and the district leans D.
  • Senate District 18 (Southern Cuyahoga County and Lake County): Jerry Cirino (R-Kirtland) is running against Katie O’Neill and the district leans R.
  • Senate District 24 (Southern and Western Cuyahoga County): Tom Patton (R-Strongsville) is running against Sue Durichko. This is too close to call.

Other races that will elect new House members include:

  • House District 6 (Central Franklin County): Democrat Christine Cockley v Republican Hussein Jabiri
  • House District 10 (Southern Franklin County): Democrat Mark Sigrist v Republican Brian Garvine
  • House District 15 (Central and Western Cuyahoga County): Democrat Chris Glassburn v Republican Aaron Borowski
  • House District 17 (Southern Cuyahoga County): Democrat Jessica Sutherland v Republican Mike Dovilla
  • House District 13 (Northern Cuyahoga County): Democrat Tristan Rader v Republican Robert Dintaman
  • House District 21 (Northeast Cuyahoga County): Democrat Eric Synerberg v Republican Joshua Malovasic
  • House District 28 (Northern Hamilton County): Democrat Karen Brownlee v Republican Jenn Giroux
  • House District 30 (Southern Hamilton County): Democrat Stefanie Hawk v Republican Mike Odioso

STATEHOUSE LEGISLATIVE UPDATES

Lame Duck

As the General Assembly ends, a few pieces of legislation are expected to reach the House and Senate floors during lame duck. Key measures include:

  • House Bill 7 — Enact the Strong Foundations Act. Sponsored by Reps. Andrea White (R-Kettering) and Latyna Humphrey (D-Columbus), this legislation appropriates $35 million to support doula services, pregnancy and postpartum individuals, children and families in poverty, early intervention, childcare, and a cost savings study for the Medicaid program. This bill is awaiting its first hearing in the Senate Finance Committee.
  • Senate Bill 83 — Enact Ohio Higher Education Enhancement Act. Sponsored by Sen. Jerry Cirino (R-Kirtland), this legislation prohibits mandatory diversity, equity, and inclusion training unless it is required to comply with state and federal law, professional licensure requirements, or grants. Despite the over a dozen revisions to the bill, Governor DeWine said he would potentially sign this bill if more revisions were made, though he did not specify what changes he wants to see. The bill is awaiting a hearing on the House floor before being sent to the governor’s desk.
  • Marijuana — Following the passage of Issue 2 last year, which legalized the sale, purchase, and possession of recreational marijuana in Ohio for adults 21 and over, policy surrounding the implementation of recreational cannabis continue to be a high priority item for the state legislature. Shortly after Issue 2’s favorable vote, the Senate included language in HB 86 removing home cultivation, slashing possession limits, removing social equity provisions, and more than doubling taxes. Though the House has not taken up the bill again, it is likely that language on cannabis implementation will appear again before the end of the General Assembly.

Economic Issues

Monthly Financial Report

The Office of Budget & Management released their monthly report detailing overall economic activity in the state.

 

Highlights:

  • Ohio’s GDP increased by 3.4% during the second quarter of 2024, 0.4% above the national average.
  • Personal income tax exceeded the year-to-date estimate by 0.4%.
  • Non-auto sales and use tax was 25.3% above the year-to-date estimate.
  • Auto sales and use tax was $5.4 million above the estimate for Q1 of FY25.
  • Ohio’s nonfarm payroll employment decreased by about 4,400 jobs between July and August 2024, falling to 5.7 million.

The report also included notable statistics about the economic activity of the US:

  • Personal income increased by $50.5 billion (0.2%) in August 2024 to $24.9 trillion.
  • Personal consumption expenditures increased by $47.2 billion (0.2%) between July and August 2024.
  • Nonfarm payroll employment increased by an estimated 254,000 jobs in September.

 

State Tax Revenue is Down

Ohio’s tax revenue is projected to continue its downward trend, according to OBM. The $27.9 billion in tax collections for 2024 was $484.7 million below the June 2023 estimate for the State Operating Budget pool of available funding due to a decrease in personal tax income. Though OBM noted slower economic growth in the second half of the year is expected, overall economic outlook is strong due to a resilient labor market and consistent GDP growth.

Events

G2G’s Quarterly Series: What’s Happening in Washington DC—Nov 7 online at 12pm

Join G2G and grIP Venture Studio on Thursday, November 7th from 12:00-1:00PM EST for a webinar discussion on what is happening in Washington, D.C., analyzing the election results, what it means for the economy, and what to expect in 2025. Featured speakers include The Honorable Christopher Campbell, founder of Incamera Solutions and former assistant secretary for the U.S. Treasury; Chris Oates, PhD, founder of Two Lanterns Advisory and senior advisor for Oxford Analytica; and Liz Powell, Esq., MPH, founder of G2G Consulting. Register for this webinar here.

 

NAWBO Columbus Chapter “Ballots & Business”—Nov 7 in-person at 11am

Andrea Harless, Director of Government Affairs at G2G Consulting, will be a featured panelist for the National Association of Women Business Owners (NAWBO) Columbus Chapter’s “Ballots & Business” event on Thursday, November 7th from 11:00AM-1:00PM. This event will focus on the elections and how they will impact policy surrounding Ohio businesses. NAWBO serves as the unified voice of the more than 10 million women-owned businesses in the U.S. with over 7,000 members and 70 chapters. The Columbus chapter is one of the largest chapters in the country with more than 200 dues-paying members and 40 partners. Their mission is to equip and empower all women business owners to overcome challenges, fully realize their true potential, and make their mark on the world. Additional speakers include Deonna Barnett, CEO & Director of Consulting of Aventi Enterprises, LLC; Antony Regalado, Executive Director of the Hispanic Chamber of Columbus; and Monica Womack, Chief for the Minority Business Development Division at the Ohio Department of Development.