What’s at Stake in the Election
Overview
Before leaving DC on September 27, Congress focused on bills that reinforce party messaging, which they believe will resonate with their base, while avoiding issues that could alienate their voters and put their candidates in contentious positions. The November election will have a major impact on the lame-duck session – the period between the election and the swearing-in of the new Congress and President. The urgency for action will largely depend on which party is set to gain power and how tight the margins will be come January 2025.
Congress
House Republicans and Senate Democrats are defending narrow majorities in the November election, which is now just weeks away. If the election were in late September, it is more likely than not that the two chambers would flip in opposite directions, with Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the House come 2025. The reason why is due to district lines, primaries and the campaign issues dominating this election cycle. The major themes emerging in swing states and districts include abortion, border security, and inflation. If you live in one of these states, chances are you have seen ads on these topics fairly often.
Senate
The current composition of the Senate is 49 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and three Independents who caucus with the Democrats, giving the Democrats a 51-49 seat majority.
This cycle, there are 11 Republican-held seats, 19 Democrat-held seats, and four Independent seats at play. The 2024 Senate map favors Republicans, as Democrats are defending tight races in states like Montana, Ohio, and Michigan – three states won by former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump in either 2016, 2020, or both. Republicans are expected to win the open West Virginia seat currently held by Democrat Senator Joe Manchin, who is retiring. The tipping point in the Senate appears to be the Montana seat held by Senator Jon Tester, who is Chair of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. If Republicans win those two seats, they will hold a 51-49 majority come January. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to hold out hope of flipping reliably red seats in Florida (Rick Scott), Nebraska (Deb Fischer), and Texas (Ted Cruz), but this will be hard to achieve even if there is a Democrat wave.
If the Senate is controlled by the opposite party from that controlling the White House, there will be a shift in focus in the chamber toward congressional oversight and investigations. This scenario will also impact the confirmation process for executive branch employees and judges.
House
The current balance of power in the House is 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with three vacancies. Five states have redrawn House district lines for the 2024 election: Alabama, New York, Georgia, North Carolina, and Louisiana.
In the House, more Republicans than Democrats are defending seats won in 2020 by the presidential candidate of the opposite party. Five House Democrats represent districts that Trump won in 2020, while 17 House Republicans represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. Ten of those 17 seats are in New York or California. Given the current eight seat majority and the high number of seats held by presidential candidates of the other party in New York and California, control of the House will disproportionately be decided in those two states.
Closing Thoughts
If the majority shifts in either the House or Senate, it will impact the legislative agenda. For example, if the Senate is controlled by Republicans and Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, there will likely be resistance to her administration’s policies and a certain amount of gridlock in the chamber compared to a scenario in which the president’s party gains control and feels empowered to act on its priorities. In this case, if Democrats gain control of the House, the chamber will likely push through administration priorities and blame the Senate Republican majority for its intransigence.
In summary, the November election results will likely lead to significant shifts in congressional activity. Whether we see an urgency to pass legislation, like a final fiscal year 2025 government funding package during the lame-duck session at the end of 2024, will largely depend on the election results and which party controls Congress come January.
Regardless of the outcome, Congress will need to address the December 20 spending deadline, the National Defense Authorization Act, the Farm Bill policies expiring at the end of the year, tax extenders, and relief following recent disasters.
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